I agree with some of your conclusions. The guerrillas who returned from the Sherman area of Texas in May 1865 came back to Missouri fully expecting to continue their war for some time, as you saw in Holden and Kingsville on their way north. When General Dodge offered them the same terms Grant offered Lee, after he offered the same to Confederate regulars in Arkansas under General Jeff Thompson on 11 May, and gave them a chance to survive the old "no quarter" "to-the-death" business and actually go home, it took them totally by surprise. The rate of violence in that region actually dropped to almost nothing because the various small groups mostly in Jackson and Lafayette Counties had to sit down and discuss this proposal for several days. Two small band leaders, Archie Clements with a small remainder of Bill Anderson's band, and Bill's brother Jim with his own small band, actually refused and returned to the warpath in Clay, Ray, and Carroll Counties in May 1865, but they later recanted and accepted the offer in Howard County, as I seem to recall my reading. George Shepherd across the Missouri River in Clay County accepted these terms in Liberty in a separate discussion. As I understand it, Dave Poole did not for money go out to fetch in his comrades. He actually took a Union lieutenant to give assurances to very reluctant bushwhackers that this offer was on the level, and took this upon himself in order to allow his comrades to have their lives back. The Federals plainly stated that if anyone refused the offer, they would be hunted down like animals and killed. Nobody doubted that would happen. The trust part was the hardest part. That is why the Federals at Lexington encouraged Dave Poole to go back in the brush and bring the others back and had the lieutenant to go along to prove the deal. Some Union officers actually met some of the guerrilal leaders near "the Mounds" in south-central Lafayette County near the Warrensburg to Lexington road to prove this was on the "up and up." This is why the various groups came in to Lexington in small groups. It just took some longer than others to make the plunge. Also, some of these were under different leaders and some were deep in the brush for their own survival, and it took time to find all the small groups. The total number of guerrillas near and around Lexington were estimated from 150 to near 300 while all this was transpiring.
Remember Bill Anderson was killed 27 October 1864, and Quantrill left Missouri in early December 1864 with about 40 men and he died of his wounds suffered in April in Kentucky by about this time, I believe in a hospital at Louisville, KY. Yes, a large number of the central MO guerrillas returned to the Sherman, Texas area for the winter of 1864 and 1865. Even some of the men going with Quantrill to Kentucky changed their minds before the group crossed the Mississippi River near Pocahontas, Arkansas and went on to Texas and joined the others. The men in Texas generally came back to Missouri in mostly one big group in time to raid Holden and Kingsville on 7 May. The business about Quantrill leaving Texas with some, then Bill Anderson leaving later with another group, and all that took place in spring of 1864, not 1865, according to my reading of several accounts.
Bruce Nichols